Cedi Sinks Low

Ghana�s Cedi is sinking to record lows and shares of state-run companies are falling on prospects that Ghana�s Supreme Court will cancel President John Dramani Mahama�s election win and put at risk an improving economy. �If there�s going to be another election, what is going to happen to the fiscal situation?� Stuart Culverhouse, London-based Chief Economist at Exotix Ltd., said by phone on July 19. �I don�t think people are going to be thinking about whether there�s going to be any unrest or volatility. People are more concerned about what that means for economic stability.� Yields on Ghana�s dollar-denominated bonds due in 2017 barely budged after scuffles among security forces and opposition protesters broke out following 54-year-old Mahama�s victory in December and the debt is outperforming emerging-market securities this year. The Supreme Court is considering a challenge by opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo, 69, who said the vote was marred by counting abnormalities. Testimony in the three-month trial ended on July 17 and lawyers submitted last arguments on July 30. The cedi fell to a record low on July 19 and is Africa�s worst performer against the dollar this month after Kenya�s shilling. Three of the biggest decliners on the Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GGSECI) this month have the government among their top two shareholders. The Finance Ministry forecasts Ghana�s budget deficit, which ballooned last year to about triple the level of the year before, will narrow in 2013 and the $41 billion economy will expand 8 percent from 7.9 percent growth in 2012. Output shrank a quarterly 3.1 percent in the first three months of the year from a 2.1 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2012. �Importers are buying dollars ahead of time and investors are also holding on to dollars as a precautionary measure,� he said. �It�s driving the cedi weaker.� The Deputy Finance Minister, Cassiel Ato Forson declined to comment on the effect of the court case on the currency in an interview on July 19. Deficit Widened As post-election protests broke out, yields on Ghana�s $750 million Eurobonds rose one basis point or 0.01 percentage point to 4.96 percent on Dec. 12, a day after Akufo-Addo told a rally of supporters he would dispute the results in court. Yields on the debt due October 2017 retreated 20 basis points yesterday to 5.68 percent by 5:20 p.m. in London. The yields have climbed 80 basis points this year, compared with a 113 basis-point increase in emerging-market bonds, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show. �The trial inspired confidence in Ghana�s democracy, but there are concerns about how the outcome of the trial will be handled,� said Kissy Agyeman-Togobo, Accra-based analyst with Songhai Advisory LLP. �There are questions about how Ghana�s security will be managed after the court�s ruling.�